Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Info of urbansurvival.com

Info of urbansurvival.com

Urban Survival explores longwave economics and how we are repeating the same debt buildup that lead to the Crash and depression in 1929 and the 30's. An Introduction to Web Bot Technology. Subscribe to Inside Report (Click Here) Join in discussions about economic matters by Clicking Here. Web Bot Technology.urbansurvival.com/simplebots.htm

I am pleased to see the positive effect that I have had on so many people. Many asked for more information about WHY this decision was made. In answer, here's an interview with George Ure of Urbansurvival.com that I forwarded earlier today (6/14). George Ure wrote: > Richard, > > Several readers have asked...home.flash.net/%7Erhmjr/index.html

And speaking of inflation, which is all I seem to do anymore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the Department of Labor reports, "The Consumer price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in April. " George Ure of UrbanSurvival.com remarks that "the 2.6% number is a backward look - the compound...www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Moga...

Speaking of precious metals, something weird, I mean really weird, is happening, as a reader of George Ure's UrbanSurvival.com site notes when he writes, "Just a quick note for you and your peoples. Last night the COMEX gods gave a small notice of margins being raised in our precious metals. Margins as of tonight...www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2005/...

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nomura

The Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. was established as a spin-off from the Securities Department of Osaka Nomura Bank Co., Ltd. on December 25, 1925. On October 1, 2001 Nomura adopt a holding company structure and Nomura Holdings, Inc. was established. Page Top. Q2. Where is the company location? A2. Japan Nomura Holdings...www.nomuraholdings.com/faq/

Tokyo, September 12, 2007 Nomura Holdings, Inc., The Norinchukin Bank, and the Development Bank of Japan today announced an agreement to establish a joint venture to evaluate and analyze private equity funds and offer investment advisory and discretionary investment management services in fund of private equity...www.nomuraholdings.com/news/nr/hold...

An investment banking firm in Los Angeles and Washington DC. Nomura International nomura.com The European subsidary of the Nomura Securities Co., Ltd., focused on meeting the needs of investors and issuers across Europe and beyond. Deutsche Bank AG db.com European bank serving the financial needs of...www.puncat.com/Business/Financial_S...

Contract proposes $ 275 mil in salary for Carvahlo

Contract proposes $ 275 mil in salary for Carvahlo
The contract for the new Superintendent of Miami-Dade, Alberto Carvahlo, proposes an annual salary of $ 275 thousand, plus a monthly stipend of $ 900 and be in force for three years.

The details of the contract were announced on Thursday after the previous day, withdrew from the meeting of the School Board, for reasons not been completed. If fired with cause before the three years, either insubordination or incompetence of their work, Carvahlo not receive any compensation. If he is fired without cause, then it would receive one year's salary or the money of the remaining time.

The contract specifically states Carvahlo the question of incompetence, something that was not the contract of former Superintendent Rudy Crew and so there was reason to dismiss him for cause problems.

The School Board must ratify the contract during a special session or leave it for the monthly meeting of October.

The proposed salary for Carvahlo is about $ 20 billion less than he was paid to Crew. Carvahlo held the position of Deputy Superintendent of Government Affairs for the School District and has a salary of $ 202 billion annually.

McCain defends Palin commentary on economy

McCain defends Palin commentary on economy
Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, said on Wednesday that the Democrats are overstepping to criticize John McCain when he said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

In an interview with Fox News Channel, Palin said: "It was an unfair attack on the words used by Senator McCain because the rationale, as explained later, were related to our workforce, related to the liveliness of the American people . And of course, that is strong and that is the foundation of our economy, "he said.

The opponent of McCain, Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats have been mockery of McCain for holding this assertion on Monday that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" even though Wall Street fell spiral.

In the afternoon, when markets plummeted among other financial bad news, McCain was using a tone very different. Now he is calling the financial misfortunes as "one of the most severe crises in modern times."

Earlier, on Wednesday morning in Cleveland, Palin said he was disappointed that the government had to rescue another financial institution.

The Federal Reserve approved a loan of 85,000 million dollars to two years in exchange for 79.9% of the shares of AIG, which lost billions in the risky business of securing moratoriums in bonds.

"Disappointment that taxpayers are required to rescue another," said Palin to reporters who asked him how he felt, during a visit to a grocery store prepared in the city centre.

The interview will be broadcast Wednesday evening on the program "Hannity & Colmes" on Fox News Channel.

Deepen crisis in construction

Deepen crisis in construction
The lack of confidence among Puerto Ricans in the general economic crisis has exacerbated the problems in the construction sector which is experiencing one of its most sensitive stages.

With the real estate sector stagnated, rising land prices and construction materials, the sector is undergoing an acute crisis.

This follows from the most recent study of trends in the housing market in Puerto Rico of the company Technical Studies.

According to Graham told Efe Castle, economist and manager of that study, low consumer confidence is affecting the demand for housing, which is shrinking.

The consumer today feels very insecure and not have good expectations of improvement for the future, so it prefers not to buy a property at this time.

Castillo stressed that the report shows that most Puerto Ricans believed that their economic situation is worse than before and that do not foresee an improvement.

This situation is mainly due to the added effect of increases in prices of water, electricity, gasoline and most goods and services in general.

This is great inflation of 8.9 percent and the reduction of 15,000 jobs on the island, more than half in the manufacturing industry during the current fiscal year, according to the Negotiated of Labour Statistics EE. UU.

This has been a deteriorating financial situation and an increase in personal bankruptcies by 21 percent, business bankruptcies by 15 percent, rates of delinquency in the overall banking in a 5.30 and the mortgage on a 6.3 in the third quarter of 2007.

For these reasons, the process of qualification when purchasing a home is much stricter when considering the credit history of prospective buyer.

"Everything is related to increases in the cost of living and many people are under an obligation to arrears. This reflects the weakness of the economic situation and the government's fiscal situation," said Castillo.

Further compounding the plight of the mortgage banking law attorney who was recently signed by the governor of Puerto Rico, Anibal Acevedo Vila, and prohibiting notaries negotiate their rates below 1 percent.

According to the Association of Mortgage Banks of Puerto Rico, this ban could double spending on legal mortgages other than social housing.

On the other hand, have seen reductions in price of the properties of projects at the periphery of urban areas in housing estates where there are many houses for sale.

"There are all elements for a decrease in the value of their homes as the reduction in demand, excess inventory (depending on region and product), low expectations, poor economy and oversupply," said the economist.

The homes "ranging from 120,000 to 250,000 dollars are those that are sold more easily, contrary to those worth more than 400000 U.S. dollars," said Castillo.

Many of those property owners are being forced to rent their houses because they can not sell them.

However, changes in the parameters of FHA loans and a government tax credit that can reach $ 25,000, have helped to lower market segments, as these programs have made it possible for people who were unable to buy a home might so.

The crisis in this sector ha ido en aumento y no improvement, at least in the near future.

"We do not see a picture of growth but of stagnation and challenge for the next two years. Even though then the market will improve," said the economist.

"Despite the crisis in Puerto Rico were sold 11,015 new units in 2007, a good number for an island so small, even in years of greater economic strength were sold around 14,000 units," he added.

Crisis on Wall Street

Crisis on Wall Street
The financial firm Lehman Brothers survived the Civil War, two global military conflicts, the Great Depression and numerous economic declines in their 158 years of life, but it was the mortgage crisis of the twenty-first century finally ended one of the four major financial houses Wall Street.

The fall of Lehman and purchase of Bank of americas of another financial giant, Merryll Lynch, shakes investor confidence, which is very bad for an economy that does not stop to recover.

Both financial embarked on complex and risky investments, in addition to its portfolio of real estate values declined.

The federal government rescued weeks ago to institutions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the grounds that its fall would have serious consequences for the economy. In the case of Lehman, the federal government acted properly in refusing to repeat the rescue.

We must remove the impression that it is acceptable that the earnings are closed when all amiss and then the losses are from taxpayers when there is crisis.

The origin of the problems can be traced back to that deregulatory movement, especially in the 90's, shot down barriers erected after the Great Depression. Times change, but remains the irresponsibility of those who bet on risky investments from savings in others.

Wall Street is no longer only refuge of wealthy, there are millions of Americans their savings and their pensions. It is essential to provide liquidity to the markets to stabilize and then create a regulatory reform to restore investor confidence.

Subsidiary of PQDC in the State of New Jersey is in crisis

Subsidiary of PQDC in the State of New Jersey is in crisis
New jersey .- An acute crisis shaking the subsidiary Quisqueyana Christian Democrat party (PQDC) in this city, where two of its top leaders have personal problems, which are being reflected in the political organization. Following the visit to this city by the chairman of PQDC, licensed Elias Wessin Chavez, he joined a movement ghost, as a way to make you believe that the entity that he directs this well-structured in this city.

The subsidiary of PQDC this led by Mr. Julio Cesar Cabrera and Pedro Liranzo, who are deputies control of the entity. According to reports we have, all originated Cabrera because he turned a visit only to licensed Elias Wessin, if consultation with Liranzo.

It is recalled that during his visit to this city of Paterson, Wessin was honored by the Mayor of the city of Paterson, thanks to the efforts of the leader Pedro Liranzo, causing inconvenience to Cabrera, even refused to be photographed.

"The votes that won PQDC in the State of New Jersey, thanks to the work that were made in the community," Peter told us recently Liranzo, leaving a glimpse of their dissatisfaction with Julio Cesar Cabrera.

LIRANZO trips to Santo Domingo

According to reports we have, Pedro Liranzo is in the Dominican Pepública, where he has met with licensed Elias Wessin Chavez.

USA: The return to raise prices of petrol by hurricanes

USA: The return to raise prices of petrol by hurricanes
The prices of petrol on Sunday surpassed five dollars a gallon in some parts of the country after Hurricane Ike paralyzed refineries and pipelines, while that destroyed at least 10 extraction platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quite beyond the areas directly hit by winds and flooding, Ike left behind a strange pattern of prices at the pump, with differences of up to a dollar a gallon in some states, and even in different sectors of cities.

"I just spend three gas stations with prices iban from about 3.50 U.S. dollars up (see other) to five U.S. dollars located very near there," said Claire Raines, who lives near Knoxville, you have.

The average price exceeded four dollars per gallon in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, South Carolina, Hawaii and Alaska, according to the National Association of Motorists, the information service on Oil Prices and the company Wright Express.

The states receiving gasoline directly from the refineries located along the Gulf of Mexico coast were particularly affected, and supplies could be sporadic over the next several weeks that refineries will be inactive, said Tom Kloza, principal analyst of oil Information services on Oil Prices.

A gas station in Knoxville, you have requested 5.19 dollars per gallon of regular gasoline. In Nashville, about 290 kilometers (180 miles) away, petrol was sold at 3.50.

The Ike seems to have destroyed a number of production platforms and damaged several of pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, federal authorities reported on Sunday.

The overflights carried out revealed that the storm destroyed at least 10 extraction platforms, said Lars Herbst, regional director of the Federal Minerals Management (MMS, for its acronym in English).

"It is too early to say whether approaches the damage caused (by hurricanes) Katrina and Rita," said Herbst.

The MMS said that Hurricane Katrina destroyed 44 platforms three years ago, and shortly after Rita finished with 64.

Herbst emphasized that assessments are preliminary, but the damage appears to be much worse than that caused by Hurricane Gustav two weeks ago. For the time being unaware data on the size and production capacity of the platforms destroyed.

Herbst said that aerial inspections showed that Ike affected several major pipelines, but it is unknown how serious the injury was, nor whether they were oil or natural gas.

Lehman Brothers is declared bankrupt and markets tremble

Lehman Brothers is declared bankrupt and markets tremble
The financial crisis today registered a new and crucial chapter. The investment bank Lehman Brothers announced from its subsidiary in the United States to declare bankruptcy during the day, "to protect their assets and maximize their value", having failed in his attempt to find a buyer.

The British financial sector regulator, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), said for his part that works closely with U.S. authorities to manage the closure of its main British subsidiary, Lehman Brothers International (Europe), "which was put into liquidation this tomorrow. "

"As the group manages its financing globally, the British commercial activities are no longer able to meet its obligations," said Tony Lomas, a partner of PriceWaterhouseCoopers to audit by announcing the closure of the institution of the British bank.

Cimbronazo. The determination of Lehman Brothers and impacts on the markets. Both in Asia and Europe collapsed bags in Europe and Asia, amid a deep concern over the global financial system following the announcement of Lehman Brothers.

There was also a big jolt after another investment bank, Merrill Lynch, announced that it might be acquired by the Bank of americas.

In Europe, the Financial Times index of 100 stocks lost 2.72%, while the CAC-40, concerning France Backs up 3.52% and regards DAX 30 fell 2.99% from Germany.

For his part, the U.S. dollar was devalued to the euro traded at 1.4299 dollars per unit in euro, from 1.4215 dollars which closed last Friday.

Meanwhile, the pound sterling also gained ground to the dollar from 1.7937 to 1.8052.

In Asia, major stock markets of Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea not operated due to a holiday festivities, but those who operated it did so with heavy losses.

The relation of India Sensex fell 5.4%, the main barometer of Taiwan fell 4.1%, the benchmark for Australia fell 2% and the Singapore stock market suffered a decline of 2.9%.

Also falling oil prices. The price per barrel was located below the 94 dollars, its lowest level since February, with the prospect of lower energy demand following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Wall Street rises after announcement of mortgage rescue

Wall Street rises after announcement of mortgage rescue
Shares rose on Monday after investors bet on an economic recovery in the financial and housing after the announcement that the government will rescue the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Treasury Department announced on Sunday that took control of both companies, which have about half of the U.S. mortgage debts.

Investors were hoping that the plan to inject up to 100,000 million dollars to each of the financial mortgage subsidized by the government could not only help lower mortgage rates, but perhaps to boost the economy in general. The measure could help banks to be more open to sign new mortgages and refinance existing ones at lower rates, offering a possible lifeline to consumers who are struggling with payments are increased.

But government support two institutions that many Wall Street observers have said they are simply too big to drop probably not alleviate the problems of homeowners behind in paying their mortgages.

Dave Rovelli, managing director of trading securities of Canaccord Adams in New York, said that while the plan boosts confidence in sectors such as financial and housing construction, not immediately relieve the concerns in other areas of the economy. Still, he noted, the measure was much better received than a collapse of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

"Evita occurs battle of the end of the world," he said. "If one thinks about it, it helps finance, helps the housing market. The technology sector received a blow last week. Does this really the technology sector? Do not think so", he said.

At the close, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 289.53 points (2.58%) to 11.510,49, after he arrived in the morning to rise almost 350.

The broader market indicators also rebounded. The Standard & Poor's index gained 25.49 points (2.05%) at 1.267,80 units, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 13.88 units (0.62%) to 2.269.76.

The papers in a hike exceeded the shares in low ratio of 2 to 1 on the Stock Exchange in New York, where the volume of transactions was 1,500 million shares.

The Russell 2000 index, the barometer of smaller companies listed, rose 14.01 points (1.95%) to 732.86.

The Treasury bond yields to 10 years, which moves opposite to price, rose to 3.71% from 3.69% on Friday. The dollar contributions to rise against other hard currencies, while gold prices also rebounded.

In Europe, the British FTSE 100 index closed with a rise of 3.81%, the German DAX index gained 3.06% and the French CAC-40 index rose 3.42%. In Asia, the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed with a rise of 3.4% and Hang Seng Hong Kong gained 4.3%.

Federal Government will intervene two mortgage giants

Federal Government will intervene two mortgage giants
The intervention of the mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the federal government, it was decided to race after the Treasury Department advisers who reviewed the book concluded that the accounting methods had overstated its cash cushion, according to officials policy were briefed on the matter.

The proposed putting both companies, which have supported or $ 5.3 trillion in mortgages, controlled by the federal government also was due to the strong concerns among foreign investors of both companies have no capital to pay its debts. The sharp drop in the price of housing, which is expected to lead to more executions of mortgage loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, contributed to the urgency, informed the regulatory authorities.

At the close of this edition did not know all the details of the operation, but it seems that investors have in common securities companies basically lost everything; investors with preferred stock, with priority over other shareholders, should receive government support . The top executives of both companies will be replaced, according to those who were briefed on the plan.

Although it is too early to calculate the cost of federal intervention, could reach tens of billions of dollars and is probably one of the most expensive rescues financed by the taxpayer. The speech comes shortly after the rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns, which was sold to JPMorgan Chase in an operation supported by public money. The mortgage crisis has cost to consumers and investors hundreds of billions.

The two presidential candidates expressed support for plans by the government deemed necessary. Senator Barack Obama said while was campaigning in Indiana who do not act now could affect even more the real estate market. "These entities are so large and so are linked to real estate market that is probably true that steps must be taken to ensure that they do not break''said Obama yesterday in Terre Haute. But he added that the government needs to take steps to prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac benefit from government assistance.

For his part, Senator John McCain, long a strong critic of the two mortgage giants. His companion ballot, the governor Sarah Palin, spoke at a political rally in Colorado Springs: "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become too large and costly to the taxpayer.''

"The government will reduce the McCain-Palin and become a [tool] assistance that benefits the owners who most need it.''

The big question now is whether the decision by the federal government will restore confidence of investors in the credit market in the country, helping stabilize the stock market and maintains the supply of credit to those who meet the requirements.

Fannie and Freddie, by purchasing mortgages, offered to banks and other financial institutions make money for new loans, a vital lubricant to the real estate markets and credit.

As a result of government intervention, the cost of borrowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should get off because the government will assure its debt. Equally important, as the government gives financial support to both companies, will continue the sale of mortgage loans.

But the plan will probably do little to stop the low house prices. And the foreclosure surely continue to rise.

Just one week, Treasury officials were studying a wide range of options for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, que iban from doing nothing to intervene completely, according people familiar with the discussions.

Henry M. Paulson, Treasury secretary and received authorization from Congress last month to use public funds to strengthen both companies financially, has always maintained that he hoped not to have to use that power. But while the shares of both companies lost value and the cost of increased fundraising, some in the Treasury began to put pressure on Paulson to intervene quickly.

Then, last week, Morgan Stanley advisers hired by the Treasury to study the books of the two companies reached a disturbing conclusion: Freddie Mac has less capital of what was thought, according to people with inside information. The company took a decision which, although not necessarily been a breach of accounting standards, had a devastating effect on capital and financial stability of the company.

A person who was briefed on the financial position of the company, said that Freddie Mac had taken decisions that left certain accounting losses to future deficits and postponed until the fourth quarter of this year, something that was not revealed until early 2009. Fannie Mae has used similar methods, but to a lesser degree, according people familiar with the matter.

Representatives of both companies did not return calls seeking comment or simply declined to discuss the issue.

But the two companies have the option to challenge the intervention and request a judicial review.

The allegations of questionable accounting practices are nothing new in any of the two companies. Earlier this decade, the two paid heavy fines and dismissed its top executives after accounting scandals.

The chairman and chief executive Freddie, Richard F. Syron, joined the company in 2003 after executives earlier revealed that they had inflated earnings by more than $ 5000 million. The following year, Fannie Mae chief executive, Daniel H. Mudd was promoted to charge higher after the company was accused of accounting errors totaling $ 6300 million. People familiar with the plan for the Treasury said that both executives and others will be dismissed.

Bush Considers unacceptable risk by mortgage companies

Bush Considers unacceptable risk by mortgage companies

The U.S. president justified his administration assumed control of the two mortgage finance giants of the country, which have a loss of 14 billion dollars

The U.S. president, George W. Bush said the government decided to intervene Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because it was "unacceptable" risk that these companies accounted for the financial and economic system.

He announced that his administration will assume control of these two big mortgage companies, which have a loss of 14 billion dollars, "to avoid a greater potential risk" in the U.S. financial system already affected.

The situation of these companies is "critical to the health of our financial system," Bush said in a statement.

The president explained that the decision was taken after federal regulators assessed the situation and determined that companies "can not continue to operate safely and solid."

That uncertainty, he said, poses an "unacceptable risk to the broader financial system and our economy".

The Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, reported that these two companies will be led temporarily by Federal Agency of Housing Finance (FHFA, in English) and that the Treasury will make a millionaire capital injection to try to revitalize it.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae guaranteed mortgages in the United States worth 5.3 billion dollars, over half the country's mortgage debt.

The Texas crude closed at 106.23 dollars, after falling 10% in six sessions

The price of a barrel of Texas crude closed today at 106.23 dollars and accumulated a drop of 10% in six days followed by declines due to the strengthening of the dollar and new signs that declining demand in the United States.

At the end of the regular session on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), contracts Petroleum Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in October deducted 1.66 U.S. dollars to the previous figure, even after being traded to 105.13 U.S. dollars during the day.

Contracts for gasoline for delivery in October closed at 2.6861 U.S. dollars per gallon (3.78 liters), about five cents less than the previous day.

The heating oil for delivery in that month cut four cents and ended at a price of 2.9828 U.S. dollars / gallon.

The natural gas for October remained at 7.44 U.S. dollars per thousand cubic feet, twelve cents more expensive than on Thursday.

The U.S. currency continued its advance in today against the euro and other currencies, which discourages some investors to buy raw materials like gold and oil, are traded in that currency.

The euro was changing today at 1.4241 dollars, compared with $ 1.4322 Thursday.

The "green ticket" has benefited in recent weeks the prospects of making the worst economy in the eurozone, which further suggests that not rise moments of interest rates in that region economically in the short term.

A symptom of slowdown in activity in Europe and Japan joined the United States, where they perceive increasingly worrying signs of deterioration in the labour market and that low consumption, which accounts for two thirds of the overall economy.

With this background scene, has deepened the impression that undermine demand for crude oil and fuels in the U.S. and in other developed countries this year and next, which downward pressure on prices.

The Department of Energy (DOE) reported on Thursday that shipments of fuel to the U.S. market, something that is taken as reference level of demand, were an average of 20.3 million barrels a day in the last four weeks, up 3 , 5% less than in the same period last year.

Demand for gasoline in the same period averaged 9.4 million barrels per day, 1.6% less than a year ago.

The latest data released today by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) showed the continuing recovery in oil activity in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane "Gustav", which completely paralyzed oil production and more than 95 percent of natural gas.

According to the latest data provided by companies operating in the area, the usual daily output of crude is now trimmed in a 90.5% gas and 79.8%.

Signs of improvement in that area and the fact that refineries located in the southern states hardly be affected by the cyclone have also helped to strengthen the bearish trend in oil prices, that did not stop even after this week found that undermined reserves in the U.S.

Stocks of oil fell by 1.9 million barrels last week and a total of 303.9 million, a 5.7 per cent lower than last year.

Stocks of gasoline undermined in one million barrels, slightly less than expected, and the products of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, fell by 400,000 barrels.

Drop in oil prices


Drop in oil prices

With the news that the oil infrastructure of the Gulf Coast did not suffer serious damage at the hands of Hurricane Gustav, oil prices fell on Tuesday to its lowest level in five months to just over $ 100 a barrel.

The price of crude for delivery in October fell to $ 105.46 during the early hours of Tuesday, its lowest level since April, before finally losing $ 5.75 and closed at $ 109.71 in New York Mercantile Exchange. That level is nearly 30 percent less than the peak of $ 147 a barrel in July.

The last time oil dropped from $ 100 a barrel, the week of 14 to 20 March, the national average price of gallon of regular gasoline was $ 3.27. The AAA reported on Tuesday that today the average is $ 3.68, an increase of 90 cents compared with a year ago.

For now, all signs point to further price reductions.

"The demand remains weak'', said James Crandell, oil analyst for Lehman Brothers investment bank Wall Street that maintains a position contrary to predict the low oil prices.

Lehman expects the average crude price of $ 105 a barrel between October and December, and $ 100 or less at the beginning of 2009, on the basis that the weak demand in the U.S. now remains Asia and Europe.

"In Europe the situation has deteriorated economic and central banks have changed their tone''said Crandell, noting that inflation is not negative in Europe as slow growth, which reduces demand for crude." In terms of demand oil, we see that demand will remain weak in the U.S., something that has not improved at a time that prices have fallen.''

Another factor, more difficult to quantify, is the weakness in demand for crude and refined products in China, whose consumption statistics are considered unreliable long.

Analysts also believe that China accumulated inventories of gasoline and diesel fuel in the face of the Olympic Games last month.

"It is clear that they were accumulating inventory. Now not only will not accrue more, but try to reduce that inventory''said Crandell, meaning that the Chinese would use their inventory of crude oil rather than buy on the world market.

Other oil analysts believe that falling prices reflects the correction of a speculative bubble and suggest that the price will fall more in the future.

"Despite the recent correction, we believe that oil prices are still inflated and that the figures did not reflect fundamental sector'', wrote Daniel Katzenberg and Fadel Gheit, oil analyst for Oppenheimer & Co.., A signature investment management New York.

In a report issued on Tuesday, the two experts suggested that the recent hostilities in the Caspian Sea region, rich in oil, should have reversed the downward trend in prices if the global supply was indeed limited.

"The Russian invasion of Georgia and Hurricane Gustav have failed to halt the decline in the price of oil, which proves that they are inflated''and Katzenberg Gheit said, adding that''unless there is a serious disruption of supply, we think that the price of oil and touched its peak.''

Virtually the entire oil sector of the Gulf Coast was arrested while energy companies began to assess damage to the maritime platforms and pipelines, according to the Minerals Management Service of the United States. On Tuesday it was too early to say when it would resume activities, although some oil companies were preparing to bring its employees back to the platforms as soon as today.

The extraction facilities could resume its operations in one or two days, while the refineries could take from two to four days. In 2005, hurricanes Katrina and Rita disable the maritime oil infrastructure in the region for several weeks.

"Unlike three years ago, it seems that things normalised quickly''said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

On Tuesday, another factor influencing oil prices was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro, which encouraged investors who bought oil as protection against inflation.

However, oil prices may increase if the dollar weakens again, or if countries cut oil production to keep prices high, as some analysts have speculated.

OPEC is scheduled to meet on September 9 in Vienna and has indicated that it can take action to defend the level of $ 100 a barrel.